USD Index Market Analysis

Current Trend on the Daily Chart:

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Market is currently making higher high and high lower (Sign of a bull trend).

Recent price action (breaking off the key level $100-100.50) has yet to be confirmed if market had a false breakout2.png

Current Trend on the Weekly Chart:

 

Market previously had a repeated price action of retracing a complete cycle before achieving a smaller retracement at a key number of 38.2 (Fibo) and it had recently repeated itself at a key number of 61.8.3.png

On a larger scale (Previous market expansion of ABCD pattern) market retracement is actually on the 38.2. This signifies a greater probable movement to the long side.

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Current Trend on the Monthly Chart:

 

Market has just broken off a bearish trend line and it is heading to key zone.

A probability for short market reversal might be high before finding demand again in the same the zone.

Conclusion:

My take on the dollar is a long (Bull) one as market keeps showing signs of a slowing bear and a stronger bull on both the daily and weekly. Additionally market has show clear signs of rejection for a lower dollar on 9 Nov and 17 Nov through longer demand wicks.

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Chip Eng Seng – What really matters in a Stock

patience is a virtue…. still cant find a good company..hais

as I continue to find the next company for my $2k

Construction & Engineering | Founded in 1998 | Build HDB (Pinnacle -famous one)/Condo , Woodlands driving centre

Comparison will be done with Low Keng Huat [LKH] (Closest market cap)

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 0.542 (45.8% below its fair value) – (LKH at 0.648)
  • Price to earning ratio : 13.387 (Growing above industry standard – 0.23) – ( LKH at 5.162)

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 155.5 ( LKH – 62 )  Capital intensive industry
  • Growth Performance : -17.41% (LKH -7.37%)
  • Current Ratio : 7.07 (LKH – 8.719) 
  • Cash flow per share : 0.0742
  • Average management ability ( Stagnant dividend  | Positive net income/gross profit margin | overall positive cash flow – increase operation cost)screen-shot-2017-01-22-at-1-31-36-pmscreen-shot-2017-01-22-at-1-31-30-pm

3) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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Weekly Chart

Overall market trend is leaning to the bearish side as the previous high fails to break highest high. Stock price is currently at key area, where momentum are usually found. If price action closes below the blue line (Key price level), stock price will have a very high probability to drop lower.

4) Would I be vested into it?

No! no dividend growth over 5 years (Main criteria) and negative company growth. But for those who are planning to buy this company, it currently has a good risk – to – reward ratio of 1:5. (9% of ur capital to 45% gain).

Some article for your read:

 

Can you invest with little money? (Personal Journey)

How can a dollar everyday makes a difference?

Have you had this mentality – ” The sum of my money is too small/little to be invested, it will have no impact on anything” or “Wait until I get my bonus/ big pot of gold, then I should start studying and allocating my resource…. but first, I wanna get my gucci”

Many have asked me, why do I start investing even thou the money I put in is so small..

Let me put all these in numbers

(Example follows from the previous post – Is National Service a good thing? (Financially)

Imagine it is in 2003:

  • I net $1k/month | 1 Year – $12k (Without bonus)
  • Went through courses (Trading & Investing)
  • Spotted Tai Sin
screen-shot-2017-01-19-at-3-30-33-pm

TaiSin

2003, I bought $2000 worth of stock in this company, which gives me about 20k unit (Price at $0.10/stock) and sold off my 20k in 2007 units at a profit of $7,100 ( Price at $0.455/Stock). Imagine, if I’ve found 10 companies with such same attributes and invested $2k in each, I would have at least (we can never predict the game but only understand probability) $50k of capital gain (With a good risk – reward ratio)… in 4 years from my “first annual salary” investment.

So do you think your $2k has very little impact on your future?… Think again.

Currently I’m in TaiSin at a price of $0.37/stock… Why? because I didn’t spot it earlier 😦

“The only way to be rich, is to make your money work harder than you are at work”

“+1 Knowledge point”

This year, I would be investing $10k ($50k estimated return in 4 years) dollar into stocks alone. My realistic goal is to double my invested money every year, this means, $20k ($100k estimated in 4 years)  the next year and $40k ($200k estimated in 4 years) the following year.

To all it may look like a fantasy, but to me the numbers on the stock price proves that all of these are possible. In the mean time, I’ll have to sharpen my knowledge and skill to put me in a better investing spot.

Lippo Mall Indonesian Trust – What really matters in a REIT

The more asset class your money is in… does it means its diversified??

26 properties (Sumatra & Java) | Founded in 2007 | Wale is at 3.383 (Not that long)

Comparison will not be done as I couldn’t find a Indonesian trust listed in SGX

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 0.838 (16.2% cheaper than fair value)
  • Price to earning ratio :  36.087 (Growing above industry standard – 20.971)

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 55.308%
  • Growth Performance : -34.65%
  • Current Ratio : 1.135
  • Cash flow per share : 0.015 (Pay 0.37)
  • Slightly below average management ability (  Negative dividend growth  | Positive net income/gross profit margin | overall positive cash flow – Reduce in financing)screen-shot-2017-01-16-at-8-22-32-amscreen-shot-2017-01-16-at-8-22-28-am

3) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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Weekly Chart

Price action has recently broke weekly structure of a bear (Down) trend [Sign of Reversal]. Market is currently at a key level of momentum (Consolidation), before moving to the intended direction. Additionally, market has a short-term up trend. If market breaks the purple area, market has a higher probability to trend bullish (Up) longer.

4) Would I be vested into it?

If I would, it would be due to stock’s price action (Key Level gives a good risk-reward ratio). All in all, I wouldn’t be that interested with its financial numbers as there are many similar companies with such numbers.

Article to read: (I found too little in english….sorry!)

 

“+1 knowledge point”

800 Super Holdings – What really matters in a Stock

when should u buy?

Waste management, Cleaning , Recycling, Conservancy Horticultural  | Founded in 2011

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 2.362 ( 1.362 above its fair value)
  • Price to earning ratio :  9.823  ( Growing below industry standard – 20.27)

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 57.648
  • Growth Performance : 29.36%
  • Current Ratio : 1.668
  • Cash flow per share : 0.1483
  • Average management ability ( Constant dividend growth  | Positive net income/gross profit margin | overall positive cash flow – increased in financing cost)screen-shot-2017-01-13-at-10-03-00-amscreen-shot-2017-01-13-at-10-02-57-am

3) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Screen Shot 2017-01-13 at 10.20.31 am.jpg

Daily Chart

As you can clearly see market is making higher highs and higher lows, stock’s price action seems to only been picked up last year as market jump 60cents. Current price action seems to consolidating/ picking up momentum, before a big move. Based on historical chart pattern, market has a high tendency to form a strong base before breaking up.

4) Would I be vested into it?

It would be in one of my 5 year’s watch list, as stock has only paid dividend for 5 years (Not enough for me), but have good numbers to justify certain action. One issue that i foresee is the quick price picking up might cause a higher probability for a big price drop before continuing its trend…. but then again… probability might go against the odds of the 7 blue skies and make the golden dragon come out of my @ss.

Articles for you read:

RHT Health Trust – What really matters in a Stock ( My second buy of the year)

Operating in India | 12 Clinical Establishments, 4 Greenfield Clinical Establishments and 2 Operating Hospitals | Founded in 2011

Second biggest market cap (Listed on SGX), hence comparison will be done with Raffles Medical Group (RMG) – the 1st

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 0.997 ( .3% cheaper than fair value) – RMG is 4 times its fair value
  • Price to earning ratio :  17.423 ( Growing slower than industry average at 53.916)

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 24.544 ( RMG is at 4.679)
  • Growth Performance : -not provided-( RMG is at 7.17%)
  • Current Ratio : 1.877 (RMG is at 1.178)
  • Cash flow per share : 0.052 (Paying 0.93)
  • Average management ability ( High dividend growth rate at 29.56% – industry at 7.69% | Positive net income/gross profit margin | overall positive cash flow – High cost in investing – due to its capital intensive business nature)screen-shot-2017-01-09-at-9-48-21-amscreen-shot-2017-01-09-at-9-48-14-am

3) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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Sg.Finace – Max Chart

Current price action has an overall bear(Down) trend, where market is making lower high and lower low. Market has formed a gap area which previously requires a huge demand to push price beyond the area.

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Sg.Finance – 1 Year chart

Market has a bullish (Long) short term trend, where market is making higher high and higher low. It looks as if market is building momentum (Consolidating) before indicating a direction. If market would to break the gap area, price will have a higher tendency to trend higher and vice versa if it fails.

4) Why am I vested into it?

In order to balance my portfolio, I’ve decided to purchase a more “risky” yet safe stock. A few reasons why I bought it would be the  value (Cheap while having a substantial market cap), High dividend yield and good financial control of asset.

Some articles for your read:

“+ 1 knowledge point”

“+ 1 PI”

Knowing more about Straits Times Index (Technical)

How are news generated?

News are always generated through stock prices (Demand/Supply)

Screen Shot 2017-01-05 at 9.20.55 am.jpg

How can the index chart tells us more about our economy?

Understanding the chart, allow us to know the level of demand our index has. Through technical analysis where it states market that makes higher high and higher lows is to be known as a Bull (Up) trend. Above, it is our current index trend.

How can knowing the chart help us?

Knowing that prices are at a level where overall demand is strong and momentum is appealing to the upside. We might want to find under valued/priced company to buy as market has a higher probability to trend upwards than downwards.

So why does everyone says that our economy is bleak?

Remember the index chart trend is based on a long term basis (as of now it is created through 1 year of candlesticks). News generation over a drop of a few percentage point tends to be over emphasis that builds fear into minds.

No.. all news said that manufacturing is down… job losses is up..

If you really do think about it… it is not just now that all of these are happening, but it has always been part of the whole economical cycle. Example, 2008 sub-prime and 2001 dot-com crisis.

Ultimately, everything in life is about an equal balance (Two polarity). You need to have the bad to have the good, you the warm to treasure the cold (Vice versa), you earn more money and someone loses more money.

“+1 knowledge point”