#01 Shorting the Silver

Date : 24th -28th Apr

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Spotted market in a bearish short-term trend as it fails to break key level. However an immediate entry on the daily time-frame requires a high risk exposure on my a/c, hence I’ve decided to use a smaller time-frame to position my entry.Screen Shot 2017-04-29 at 2.30.46 pm.jpg

What I needed for an entry was a sign/confirmation that market is also trending in a bearish direction on the smaller time frame. Price action has made a new low (1st), market retraces and failed to break previous high (2nd), Doji formed, making it a good winning/low-risk trade for me.

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Sadly, I did not take the full profit that was initially planned as a strong hammer was formed on the small timeframe (similar reason for my entry).

Comment if you like me to continue sharing my trade log ūüôā

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Singapore Press Holding – What really matters in a Stock (Making a change starting next week)

“Changes starts when your value structure changes”

Comparison will be done with Alibaba Pictures Group (S91)

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 1.667 (66.7% Above fair value) S91 ‚Äď 1.584
  • Price to earning ratio : 24.902 ( Below¬†industry standard ‚Äď 29.45) ¬† S91 ‚Äď Not given

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 39.48% | 11.57%
  • Growth Performance : -7.39% (5 year growth)| -8% (5 year growth)
  • Dividend Yield¬†: 3.8% [ 5 years]¬†| 0% [ Doesn’t pay]
  • Current Ratio : 2.01¬†|5.173 ( High Current ratio history)
  • Book Value¬†per share : 2.08¬†|¬†0.7659
  • Cash Flow per share : 0.1893 ‚Äď 5.4% of its stock price | Negative 9% (S91)
  • Slight below average¬†management ability (No progressive Dividend Growth¬†| Good¬†net income/gross profit margin growth | overall Positive¬†cash flow (LOW)Screen Shot 2017-04-29 at 8.32.34 amScreen Shot 2017-04-29 at 8.32.29 am

3) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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Monthly Chart

Market is in a overall bearish trend as market has failed to break 2002 high in 2013. Current market entry puts u in a 1:2.59 RR ratio while putting u in a low winning probability investment. Would you invest(buy) in a bearish market // Would you go against the trend?

4) Would I be vested?

No! Alibaba too has poor financial numbers (Negative cashflow // No dividend // Negative net/gross profit)

  • Fundamental
    • Overvalued
    • Poor cashflow
    • Poor Dividend progressive growth
  • Technical
    • Stock is still in a bearish trend
    • Good RR ratio but poor winning probability ratio

 

I’ll be starting to log my forex trading a/c trades in this blog! Stay tune!

“+1 Knowledge point”

Jardine Strategic Holdings – What really matters in a Stock ($2 to $42 in 10 years)

again with my lousy analysis….

Comparison will be done with Keppel Corporation (BN4)

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 0.9 (10 % Above fair value) BN4¬†‚Äď not given
  • Price to earning ratio : 8.998¬†( Below¬†industry standard ‚Äď 17.6) ¬† BN4¬†‚Äď 14.456

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 21.256% | 75.86%
  • Growth Performance :-5.91% (5 year growth)| -16.9% (5 year growth)
  • Dividend Yield¬†: 0.84% [ 5 years]¬†| 4.35% [ 5 years]
  • Current Ratio : 1.371 ¬†| 1.79
  • Book Value¬†per share : 23.59¬†|¬†6.48
  • Cash Flow per share : 10.88¬†‚Äď 25.72% of its stock price | 9.2% (BN4)
  • Above Average¬†management ability (Good¬†dividend growth (12 yrs) | Good¬†net income/gross profit margin growth | overall Positive¬†cash flow (High)Screen Shot 2017-04-26 at 8.34.44 pmScreen Shot 2017-04-26 at 8.34.39 pm

3) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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Monthly Chart

Overall market is in a bullish trend as you can see market has too, just broke of recent monthly high. Market has a high tendency to retest its new level which will put me in a spot of uncertainty (where risk is known and reward is unknown).

4) Would I be vested?

Yes! But not now.

  • Company has good financial history (since the start)
    • Dividend
    • Current
    • CASHFLOW (highest I have ever seen)
  • Good management ability
    • Price doesn’t affect its performance ability
    • Growth in stock price (demand after retracements)
  • Technically
    • Price has proved that it is in a bullish trend
    • Not at a good level for me to invest (Uncertainty)

“+1 knowledge point”

“+1 PI”

UOB – What really matters in a Stock

“Stay true to what works”

Comparison done with OCB (039)

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 1.157¬†(15.7 % Above fair value) 039¬†‚Äď 1.14
  • Price to earning ratio : 11.768¬†( Below¬†industry standard ‚Äď 17.42) ¬†¬†039 – 11.667

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 81.1% | 53.9%
  • Growth Performance : 5.41% (5 year growth)| 5.24% (5 year growth)
  • Dividend Yield¬†: 3.24[ 5 years]¬†| 3.65% [ 5 years]
  • Current Ratio : – Not given-
  • Book Value¬†per share : 20.1¬†| 8.85
  • Cash Flow per share : 2.04¬†‚Äď 9.4% of its stock price | 10% (OCB)
  • Below average¬†management ability ( Poor progressive¬†dividend growth | Good¬†net income/gross profit margin growth | overall Positive¬†cash flow ‚Äď but considered poor)Screen Shot 2017-04-23 at 12.53.37 pmScreen Shot 2017-04-23 at 12.53.31 pm

3) TEHCNICAL ANALYSIS

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Monthly Chart

Market is in a long-term bullish trend; market find strong demand at $8 in 2009 and created a higher high in 2015. Although weekly shows a good entry position (Breaking of key level), it still¬†doesn’t warrants a wise entry for individuals who are looking to long this stock as it puts you in a losing risk to reward ratio.

4) Would I be vested?

No

  • Lack of current ratio
  • Cashflow is not as strong to¬†other stocks in my watch-list
  • OCB looks like a more stable company as reliance on financing is 30% lesser
    • Yet achieving “close-to-similiar” growth
    • Better cashflow
    • Constant Dividend growth
  • Technical shows lousy RR ratios

“+1 Knowledge point”

Engro Corporation – What really matters in a Stock (Construction)

Investing its not for people with the mentality of wanting to get rich immediately

Comparison done with NSL Ltd (N02)

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 0.495¬†(50.5% Below fair value) N02¬†‚Äst0.809
  • Price to earning ratio : 18.827¬†( Below¬†industry standard ‚Äď 20.9) ¬† N02 ‚Äst39.28

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 4.8% | 4.68%
  • Growth Performance : -15.54% (5 year growth)| -32.66% (5 year growth)
  • Dividend Yield¬†: 0.58[ 5 years]¬†| 3.89% [ 5 years]
  • Current Ratio : 4.435¬†(5 years record of High¬†current ratio)|¬†5.537
  • Book Value¬†per share : 1.85¬†| 1.80
  • Cash Flow per share : 0.0875 ‚Äď 9.5% of its stock price
  • Below average¬†management ability ( Poor¬†dividend growth | Weak¬†net income/gross profit margin growth | overall Positive¬†cash flow – but considered poor)Screen Shot 2017-04-22 at 2.44.04 pmScreen Shot 2017-04-22 at 2.44.10 pm

3) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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Monthly Chart

Market is in an overall bearish trend, as market fails to broke off ’07 high and finds seller’s supply in 2015. Price action indicates that market might have a higher probability to trend lower if market fails to break $0.698. A market execution order as of now is not wise as it puts you into a 1:1.5 risk to reward ratio.

4) Would I be vested?

No. Why?

  • Poor dividend growth
  • Cashflow is considered low as compared to¬†others
  • Technical analysis shows that its not wise

I’ll be trying to post 2 analysis a week!

“+1 Knowledge point”

Would you buy Breadtalk shares cause of its name/familiarity?

” Mitigate your risk through understanding a company’s financial number is key to winning this game ” – anon

Comparison will be done with Auric Pacific Group (A23) РCurrently has been offer $1.65 to go private / Owner of Sunshine/Foodjunction/Buttercup/SCS Dairy (famous butter)

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 3.037¬†(13.9% Below fair value) A23¬†‚Äď 1.236
  • Price to earning ratio : 35.099¬†( Below¬†industry standard ‚Äď 60.71) ¬†A23 ‚Äst28.751

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 119.82% | 1.57%
  • Growth Performance : -2%| -Not given-
  • Dividend Yield¬†: 1.52%[ 5 years]¬†| 6.22% [ 5 years]
  • Current Ratio : 0.98¬†(5 years record of LOW¬†current ratio)|¬†2.035
  • Book Value¬†per share : 0.4693¬†| 1.27
  • Cash Flow per share : 0.248 ‚Äď 17.9% of its stock price
  • Average¬†management ability ( Poor¬†dividend growth | Weak¬†net income/gross profit margin | overall Positive¬†cash flow)Screen Shot 2017-04-17 at 6.54.33 pmScreen Shot 2017-04-17 at 6.54.27 pm

3) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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Weekly Chart

Overall, market is in a bullish trend as you can see it failed to break 1st high and found strong demand further on. Market currently is at a price that is not advisable for entry as it puts you in a 1:3 Risk to Rewards Ratio. Additionally, market short-term trend doesn’t seems to be heading north (Doji candlestick formed) – Higher probability for a short-term bearish trend before heading back.

4) Would I be vested into it?

No would be my straight answer, it is not just cause of technical but its because of its poor financial numbers. With such poor current ratio for 5 years shows that the company ability to liquidate without a problem is a no-no for me, additionally with a high gearing track record ratio its a confirm no. You can definitely buy a better stock…

“+1 knowledge point”

Mapletree Greater China – One of the best stock so far….

3 Malls in the busiest place of China – Hongkong/Shanghai/Beijing

Comparison will be done with Mapletree Logistic (M44U) 

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 0.861 (13.9% Below fair value) ¬†M44U ‚Äď 0.874
  • Price to earning ratio : 7.36 ( Below¬†industry standard ‚Äď 22.45) ¬†M44U ‚Äst15.298

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 75% | 68%
  • Growth Performance : 3.5%|¬†-23.59%
  • Dividend Yield¬†: 4.04%[ 5 years]¬†| 6.22% [ 5 years]
  • Current Ratio : 4.018 (5 years record of high current ratio)|¬†1.713
  • Book Value¬†per share : 1.21¬†| 1.27
  • Cash Flow per share : 0.1421¬†‚Äď 13.6% of its stock price
  • Average¬†management ability ( Good¬†Consecutive¬†dividend growth | Good¬†net income/gross profit margin | overall Positive¬†cash flow)Screen Shot 2017-04-14 at 3.49.50 pmScreen Shot 2017-04-14 at 3.49.46 pm

3) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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Weekly Chart Analysis

Market is currently in a bull trend, higher highs & higher lows. The stock has a high probability to trend upwards as price action indicates a strong buying demand (pink area) after creating a higher low of it’s trend. Current position of entry puts you at a 1:1 RR ratio.

4) Would I be vested into it?

No as price of stock is not in a position for a wise entry. That begin said, I’d find that the financials of the company to be one of the best that I’ve written the past few weeks.… but guess we were too late for the nice price action movement.

Portfolio update:

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Things that I’ve learnt from this investment:

  • f*ing do more analysis to spot such good stock (so I can buy at a better price)
  • Notice the period of price growth (It allows you to set a proper exit strategy)

“+ 1 Knowledge point”

“+1 P.I”