Maxi-Cash – What really matters in a Stock

Comparison will be done with ValueMax(T6I)

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 1.319 (702.8% Above fair value) T6I – 0.76
  • Price to earning ratio : 10 ( Below industry standard – 43.39)  T6I – 8.788

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 207% | 102%
  • Growth Performance : 23.31%| -4.48%
  • Dividend Yield : 2.262%[ 5 years] | 0 [ only paid for 4 years]
  • Current Ratio : 1.44 | 2.15
  • Book Value per share : 0.1337| 0.3198
  • Cash Flow per share : 0.0197  | 0.0354
  • Below average management ability ( Stable dividend growth | Weak net income/gross profit margin | overall Positive cash flow due to financing)

Screen Shot 2017-06-25 at 11.02.16 amScreen Shot 2017-06-25 at 11.02.23 amScreen Shot 2017-06-25 at 11.02.49 am

3) Technical Analysis

Screen Shot 2017-06-26 at 9.54.46 am.jpg

Price of Maxi-Cash has been bearish till last year (2016). Since then, market has been picking up bullish momentum, as progressive higher highs and higher lows are being built. This can been seen in may where seller has tried to break key bullish level but have failed to do so. An market execution order will give you a 1:1 RR, This is in the point of view that market has no fundamental value for a longer entry.

4) Would I be vested into this company?

No!

Fundamentally:

  • Overvalued
  • No strong current ratio history/High financing to maintain growth of the company/conflicting numbers

Technically:

  • No value for purchase

“+1 Knowledge point”

“+1 Diversification for comp”

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#09 – Long CadChf

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The previous week has been a rather a quiet one as there were little charts that fulfilled my trading requirement. However, I’ve spotted a potential entry on the CadChf as market test key monthly level. I spotted signs of bear exhaustion on the Monthly Chart and was seeking an entry.

Screen Shot 2017-06-25 at 10.35.20 am.jpg

Scrolling down the Weekly Chart had me realised that market has been acting repeatedly when price heads towards the monthly level. As you can see market tend to retrace with a strong momentum whenever it touches that level. Last week week market broke off the key level with a strong bullish candlestick beating past prices pull down.

Screen Shot 2017-06-25 at 10.40.40 am.jpg

On the Daily Chart, I’ve decided to wait for sign of market continuation before entering the trade. As you can see on Thursday, price action reversed the previous day price with a strong bullish engulfing candlestick. Which led me to seek signals of entry on the smaller time frame.

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Executed an long entry on this pair through the 1Hour Chart. As market broke off the 1 hour bearish channel, with a strong close, I have decided to put a probability bet on this pair. My order is no longer live as i was wiped out due to spread (spread on minor pairs are really high) and have yet to re-enter as i was out of home on Friday.

Hope you guys had a profitable week!

Is CPF really that bad? (Part 1)

Try putting whatever you know about CPF aside before reading this post

Disclaimer; CPF is a mandatory thing for all Singaporeans/PR so knowing it is as important as maintaining your financial health

-Short Summary-

There are 3 Accounts in your CPF before you turn 55:

  • Ordinary Account (OA)
  • Special Account (SA)
  • Medisave Account (MA)

When you turn 55:

  • OA + SA = RA (Retirement Account)
  • MA = Acts like your health insurance

At this current point of our life, how much do we have for retirement (Cash/Savings) not including property, because we would want to be living comfortably like now (*assuming) ??

The average Joe and Jane most probably only have their money soaked in endowment plans and some weird insurance products. The question to you is when have you last counted the GUARENTEED (remember not the projected) return on these products?

If so, would it beat money accumulated in your CPF if the same premiums are put inside?

– Assuming that you only need the money for retirement and not now (Insurance policy plans that are signed up for are normally 15-25 years) –

So how is CPF good for our retirement?

Interest rate on each account (Before 55)

  • OA (2.5 – 3%)
  • SA (4 – 5%)
  • MA (4% – 5%)

Additional interest

  • Interest on (RA+MA)
    • 6% on the first 30k, 5% on the subsequent 30k [Within the first 60k bracket]
    • 4% for the next 60k and above

Example

You earn $30k Annually, (Your) CPF contribution $6k, (Employer) CPF contribution $5.1k, Total contribution 11,100. Started working at age 25, currently age 35, retiring at age 55. Total CPF amount in your RA would at least have $749,224.54 and MA would be maxed.

Something you must know from this example

None of your CPF money is touched (pay HDB loan). Some money were transferred to your SA, to maximized the 6%,5% and 4% interest. This figure has bare the CPF allocation rate and no volunteer contributions have been made. No investment made.

THE NUMBER PROVIDED IS AN ESTIMATED NUMBER

Does your insurance beat it?

I’d not know, but I do believe you would likely get more from investing in your CPF than in any financial product your bancassurance/financial planner would advise you to buy.

If any mistakes were made in this post please help in commenting on them 🙂

“+1 Knowledge point”

Dairy Farm International – What really matters in a Stock? (IKEA/7-11/GIANT/COLDSTORAGE/GUARDIAN/GNC)

The more the better?? The bigger the better?? The more expensive the better?

6,500 Outlets / 180k Staffs / leading pan-Asian retailer / Member of Jardine Matheson Group / Founded in 1886

Comparison will be done with OLAM (O32)

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 7.028 (702.8% Above fair value) O32 – 1
  • Price to earning ratio : 23.587 ( Below industry standard – 43.39)  O32 – 16.855

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 64.08% | 256%
  • Growth Performance : -0.65%| -Not given-
  • Dividend Yield : 2.66%[ 5 years] | 2.59% [ 5 years]
  • Current Ratio : 0.583 (5 years record of LOW current ratio)| 1.69
  • Book Value per share : 1.11 | 2.02
  • Cash Flow per share : 0.505 | 0.2556
  • Below average management ability ( Poor dividend growth | Weak net income/gross profit margin | overall Negative cash flow)Screen Shot 2017-06-19 at 11.41.27 amScreen Shot 2017-06-19 at 11.41.20 am

3) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Screen Shot 2017-06-19 at 11.49.53 am.jpg

Current stock price is still trending bearishly after its 14 year bull trend breakout.  Market has since been making lower low and lower high and may have just formed a Head and Shoulder pattern recently. A current long entry will have a 0.71 RR. Technically, Stock price requires high demand for it to break key level (Red line) to continue the bull trend ; making current bear trend a retracement.

4) Would I be vested into it?

No! it’s just another “familiar brand” hype

Fundamentally:

  • Highly overvalued (Still growing below industry standard)
  • Negative cashflow (16 x of it’s price) / Negative grow/ Poor CR

Technically:

  • Market still has bearish trend characteristics
  • RR ratio is poor for an entry

“+1 Knowledge point”

#08 – Gold (should we all buy now?)

In order know if it is a good time to buy good, we need to know the price behaviours of consumers. I have chosen to use USD/OZ (USA holds the biggest gold reserves).

Screen Shot 2017-06-19 at 12.14.16 pm.jpg

Market trend on the Monthly Chart has broke of a 8 year bull trend, making a bearish trend. As you can see market has failed to make higher high in 2016 while making a strong bearish candlestick. Thereafter, market build up (demand) became weak and show signs on bearish trend continuation pattern.

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On the Weekly Chart, market has just formed a double top (aligning with monthly analysis), giving market a higher probability to trend bearishly. Additionally, market has also failed to break recent high.

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On the Daily Chart, market seems to be in a bullish trend that has just been stopped due to the double top. A market execution trade will put you in a 1.15 RR.

So should you be buying gold now?

Honestly, I do not think you should be buying unless you’re being paid to do so. Price behaviour seems to state consumers are believing in the health of their economy ( the bet against that a recession wont happen soon).

Remember a profitable investment into Gold is only when there’s a capital gain in price. Getting at a price where market seems to be selling is only financially unwise (for now), as market seems to be selling off more. Why get it at a higher price when you can get it at a wholesale price?

 

A reminder to self

I’m finally back from a 6D5N vacation from Bangkok,Thailand and it was amazing.

It taught me to be constantly fighting for what I want (discounts) and if it fails the first time, who says it will fail the second/third/fourth.

No one can fight your battles only yourself / Victory goes for those who doesn’t give up

 

Some photos are missing as I was busy enjoying myself .

Some recommendation that you can consider if you’re heading down to BKK for a holiday!

Use Eatigo app to find good food deals, discount are based on timing of booking! Best thing about it, you can use it in Singapore too!

  1. If you’re staying near KhaoShan
    • Try Susie Wong’s Beers and Buns (120 bhat for a sandwich – damn good)
    • Try Puff sticks ( a Thailand twist on curry puff)
    • Go to Eagle Nest Bar
      • Its a bar opposite the Wat Arun (Temple of Dawn)
      • It was renovating when I was there
      • 180-360 bhat for beer – wine.
  2. If you’re staying near Silom
    • Try Cloud 47 bar (47th floor)
      • The beer is cheap (160 bhat)
      • Largest rooftop bar in thailand
  3. If you’re staying near Chitlom
    • Try Speakeasy bar (24th floor)
      • The alcohol are abit expensive but the architect is really beautiful

Sakae – What really matters in a Stock

Ever wonder what happen to all the Sakae Sushi Restaurants?

Sakae Holdings have over 18 brands / Start in 1996 / With 200 Outlets worldwide

Sounds like an achievement doesn’t it? but would you still buy after you know the numbers?

Comparison will be done with ChasWood Resources Holding (5TW)

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 1.264 (26.4% Above fair value) 5TW – 1.472
  • Price to earning ratio : Not given ( Above industry standard – 86.67) 

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 160% [Exponential increase in financing] | 517%
  • Growth Performance :  not given 
  • Dividend Yield : 1.74% [5 Years] | Doesn’t pay –
  • Current Ratio : 0.419 [Poor ratio within 5 years] |0.4719 [Poor ratio within 5 years]
  • Book Value per share : 0.2216 | 0.0109
  • Cash Flow per share : -0.047 [Due to high financing/Drop of business]| -0.0037
  • Bad management ability (Dividend payout was stop 2 years ago| Negative profit margin | Negative cash flow ).Screen Shot 2017-06-10 at 10.25.15 amScreen Shot 2017-06-10 at 10.25.08 am

3) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Screen Shot 2017-06-10 at 10.44.43 am.jpg

Currently, stock is trading at 2013’s price level with a bearish momentum after a strong Head and Shoulder pattern was formed in late 2015. Market tend to find strong supply of suppliers at $0.350, as you can see two strong rejection on that price level. A current entry will have a  1:3.373 RR with a super low winning probability.

4) Would I be vested into it?

NO! No wonder you see lesser and lesser Sakae restaurants around.

Fundamentally:

  • Overvalued with no justification
  • Poor cashflow / high financing/ negative margin / poor management

Technically:

  • A high RR ratio with a poor Winning probability makes it a gambling entry

“+1 Knowledge point”