14/2/18 – UOB

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Weekly Chart Analysis – Price action on the stock indicates that it is in an overall bull trend ( started in 2009 ), making higher highs and higher lows. Something I spotted was that market tends (high probability) to retrace to the 0.5 area before moving higher.

Current price action indicates a probable retracement more than a continuation of the trend.

 

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Daily Chart Analysis – Differs a lot from the weekly chart, where it shows that price action has recently respected previous structure low (maintaining the trend characteristic). The market still has a leg room to prove the retest, hence an entry now wouldn’t be a wise one.

The ideal entry would be an exhaustion in retracement like the current one, It will provide a better Risk to Reward Ratio.

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26/01/18 AEM

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Daily Chart – Market has broken 2004 Highs with a strong bullish momentum that doesn’t seem to end? It holds an erratic bullish trend characteristic, as you can see sometimes market consolidates with a considerable amount of time and sometimes it doesn’t.

What do I mean? as you can see after the break of $1, makes tends to have a spurge growth in buyers (probably price followers) entering the stock this led to an immediate “unhealthy” growth in price which led to the drop of 80% (in the range of $2-1).

So what does current price tells me? The market tends to retrace sharply after a new “fast dollar break”. Thus, entries would be highly possible near the whole number.

 

19/01/18 – DBS Analysis

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Daily Chart – DBS has an overall bullish trend that is either losing some of its steam (short-term) or is trying to build traction. I would think the latter, as seen from previous price actions, market would have a high tendency to consolidate before making a new high.

So why did I say it might be losing some of its steam on the short-term? Pre-consolidation and post since the first circle shows that market has been growing 10% or greater, but on recent consolidation, market is growing at 8% or lower.

Then why do I think the latter is more true than the first? I believe market is ready to break into new highs and before doing so, it requires a chunky consolidated price actions (building traction/demand) before proving overall trend characteristic. In summary : this is a higher PROBABLE bet then the other.

I’d think market has a high chance to test previous structure low or form its new structure low. Thus giving traders a good entry opportunity so do watch out!

Cache Logistic Trust – What really matters in a REIT

Some numbers are not provided due to the lack of available information

Constituted on 11 February 2010 | Warehouse Properties | Singapore, China & Australia | Portfolio value at 1.3 billion

  1. IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

    • Price to Book Ratio: 1.009 (overvalued by 0.9%)
  2. LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

    • Gearing : 66.93% ( Above average reliance on financing for growth)
    • Wale : 4.4 Years
    • Current Ratio : 0.685 ( Unable to pay off short-term debts and long-term obligation if liquidated)
    • Growth Rate : 7% (over 5 years)
    • Cash Flow Per Share : -0.0122
    • Poor management ability ( Decreasing dividend payout | Net income decreasing| Poor cashflow management )screen-shot-2016-10-16-at-6-25-47-pmscreen-shot-2016-10-16-at-6-23-21-pm

Still not a buy for me hais –  due to the management’s ability! Anyway, I have just read finish Benjamin Graham – Intelligent investor!! It’s a really good read that advocates the importance of number! I’ll share more on what I’ve learned on the next post.

p.s I wanted to write about tax evasion…. but…. hais

“+1 knowledge point”

Fraser Centrepoint Limited Treasury – What really matters in a Bond

Like the Aspial Treasury, I couldn’t find much financial info on the treasury company, I will using the group’s financial number

Matures on 22 May 2020 | 3.65% | Semi-Annually coupon payment | Subsidiary of Fraser Centrepoint Limited | Started in 2011 |

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF BOND BELOW PAR VALUE

  • Current market value : 1.008 ($8 above its par value)

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity: 1.25 (Strong reliance on financing for growth) – But still better than Aspial
  • Growth Performance: -16.94%
  • Current Ratio: 1.84 ( Above average) – Genting is better
  • Below average management ability ( Increasing dividend payout | average net income growth | Poor cashflow management)screen-shot-2016-10-14-at-8-22-43-amscreen-shot-2016-10-14-at-8-22-31-am

The bond is used for the corporate reason such as refinancing loan, financing and increasing general working capital. The numbers are not to my liking and hence I won’t be entering and of course, I’m trying to get my bang for my buck

“+1 knowledge point”

Aspial Treasury- What really matters in a Bond

Due to the lack of financial information on this company, I’ll be doing on the corporate company

Matures on 28 August 2020 (4 more years) | 5.25% | Semi-annually coupon payment | Subsidiary of Aspial Corporation | Founded in 2015 | Jewellery / Maxi Cash / World Class Island (Real estate)

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF BOND BELOW PAR VALUE

  • Current market value : 0.915 ($85 below par value)

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity: 485% ( super high reliance on financing – Not safe)
  • Growth Performance: 6.65%
  • Current Ratio: 2.49 ( Above average) – Genting is better
  • Poor management ability ( Reducing dividend payout | Poor net income growth | Poor cashflow management)screen-shot-2016-10-11-at-12-19-56-pmscreen-shot-2016-10-11-at-12-19-52-pm

 

Even though this bond is one of the highest paying one, I would be more conservative in investing in this company due to its poor management ability. How can you have such a high Debt/Equity ratio with an above average current ratio yet having a poor net income margin??? – something is wrong somewhere.

“+1 Knowledge point”

Singtel – What really matters in a Stock

The more familiar the brand is… the safer it would be??

Diversified Telecommunication Services | M1 & Starhub are industrialized as Wireless Telecom Services – HUH?!?!? | 6 Subsidiaries (Optus, NCS, InSing, Innov8, Amobee, TrustWave) | 1 Partner – Bridge Alliance

1)  IDENTIFICATION OF COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERVALUED.

  • Price to book ratio : 2.542 ( 1.5 times overvalued)
  • Price to earning ratio :  16.687 ( Over performing – Due to its niche industry)

2)  LEARN ABOUT THEIR NUMBERS

  • Debt To Equity : 36.289 % ( Low reliance on debt for growth)
  • Growth Performance : 0.2332% (Low growth rate)
  • Current Ratio : 0.841 ( inability to pay off short-term debts and long-term obligations, if liquidated now – very weird with such a low debt-to-equity ratio)
  • Cash flow per share : 0.3771 ( And you’re paying $4 a share with a dividend payout of 0.175 per share)
  • Questionable management ability ( Increasing dividend payout | Increasing Net income | Cashflow from operations are decreasing??? choppy numbers?? hmm)screen-shot-2016-10-06-at-12-07-35-pmscreen-shot-2016-10-06-at-12-07-30-pm

There is definitely some fundamental reasons/strategy for all of this BUT…..With such a high premium to pay for at such a low growth rate with questionable numbers….. I choose to say no to conventional ideas on huge corporation.. unless it’s cheaper 🙂 of course, why would u want to buy 1.5 times for an “apple” when you get it cheaper and better elsewhere…. if I’m just patient enough…. will patience get you somewhere RICH???

“1 Knowledge point”